GlobeNewswire
2012-06-27 GTM Research Publishes Its Flagship Analysis on the PV Supply
Market, Detailing the Technology, Economic and Competitive
Dynamics at Play in the Global PV Industry
BOSTON, June 27, 2012 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- GTM Research forecasts 21
gigawatts of PV module manufacturing capacity to come offline by 2015
as the global market reconciles a dire supply-demand imbalance. GTM's
latest report, PV Technology, Production and Cost Outlook: 2012-2016
estimates module supply to be in excess of global demand by nearly 110
percent this year; or roughly 59 gigawatts of total supply compared to
30 gigawatts of total demand. The pain is more acute when considering
the greater PV supply chain, as the report forecasts wafer, cell and
module manufacturers to retire a combined 60 gigawatts of capacity by
2015.
GTM's 291-page report covering the PV wafer, cell and module market is
the most granular analysis to date on the past, present and future of
this embroiled industry. The report includes bottom-up cost and price
estimates for wafers, cells and modules, as well as competitive
analysis of suppliers along a range of metrics including manufacturing
capacity, cost, balance sheet strength, technology, bankability and
business model. Download the report's brochure to see the complete
scope at http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/pv-supply-2012.
"The PV manufacturing industry has evolved from a period of secular
growth, in which profits grew year-over-year, to a period of cyclical
growth" said Shyam Mehta, Senior Analyst at GTM Research and the
report's author. "Fundamentally, this is due to the sheer magnitude of
overcapacity that exists in the value chain today and the speed with
which feed-in tariffs are being extinguished the world over. We are in
a transitional time in the history of the market; the training wheels
of subsidies are coming off, and the next few years will see the
industry's first attempt to ride without support. Consequently, the
next three years will be an extremely difficult period."
Mehta commented that aside from a select few low-cost, top-tier firms
such as Yingli Green Energy and Trina Solar that can attain
manufacturing costs of $0.45 per watt by 2015 and sustained
profitability, module suppliers cannot expect to attain financial
success by selling commoditized "plain-vanilla" modules. This is due to
the intense level of overcapacity and consequent compressed pricing
outlook over the next few years.
"Most current PV manufacturers will have to take a long, hard look in
the mirror and make tough decisions about their future role in the
industry," said Mehta. "They can either exit gracefully, or continue as
producers in the undifferentiated component market where they have no
inherent advantage, or take risks in terms of their business,
technology and product models, knowing full well these moves could also
end in failure."
For more information on this report and the state of the PV supply
market, visit
http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/pv-supply-2012.
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